[LMB] Re: Betan Military

Michael R N Dolbear m.dolbear at lineone.net
Tue, 25 Dec 2001 19:10:03 -0000


> From: Steve Knott <Steve.Knott at daedalic.com>
> Date: 25 December 2001 13:46

> Andrew Lambdin-Abraham wrote:
> >Hmm... possible, but I think the value of the plasma mirror is more
> >than her operation if it wasn't expected to succeed.
> 
>  
> Concur that the value of the tech was high ... but the mission (I think)
> was to keep the Barrayarans from estabilishing a solid beachhead
> (planthead?) from which it would it would have taken years to eject them
> ... thus the moral and military imperitives were working togeather so as
> long as P(s) was significantly greater than 0 (0.5 would have been
> enough I think) it was going to be a 'go'.

Hm, I don't think you are looking at this as the Betan planners would have
done.

The blockade runners with the cargo of Plasma Mirrors etc. were unarmed,
their only safety was in their speed so did not need experienced BDF crew
except for some as passengers to train the Escobarans to use the mirrors.

Cordelia's deception ship was unarmed too, their only chance of avoiding
capture when the Barrayarans started looking was to lie silent, again
experienced BDF personnel would have been of little benefit in advancing
the mission.

The probability of Cordelia's loss would not have been a significant item.

The operation would be a success if enough blockade runners got through and
they risked almost no critical personnel. As to the secret tech, the
mirrors could have been "lend lease" or "pay on success" there was little
risk of the tech leaking beyond Escobar in the short term.

-- 
Little Egret