[LMB] [OT] May I do this?

[Richard Suitor]

On 12/18/06, James Nicoll <jdnicoll at panix.com> wrote:
> OK, here's the question.
<snip question>

1. 36 B crowded.

2. Fairly flat age distribution that drops rapidly around 100 yrs  (my
translation of your words): disease and accidents completely under
control; system irreversibly breaks down around 100.    Considerable
mastery of genetics, so that genetic conditions that would have
indicated poor choices of grandparents are treatable or those genes
have been removed from the pool.  And, conceivably, a Logan's Run
planet with checkout time around 100 instead of 30.

3.  Fairly flat age distribution:  young people aren't quite as
adventurous as today (few fatal accidents).  Population is stable,
neither shrinking nor growing.  Therefore no significant pockets of
poverty such that the very young are put at high risk.  No serious
wars in the last 100 years.  Unless there are local deviations from a
flat distribution that you haven't told us about.

4.  Population distribution is not at all clear.  I assume Latin
America includes S. Am and Centr. Am & maybe Mexico?    First, I would
not expect that definition to persist for 300 years.  A continent
definition would be better.  But - Asia still has the highest
population density, North America the least, with a factor of 5
between them.  Europe has a higher population density than N Am.
Given current trends, I would expect the population mixture of both
Europe and North America to be more diverse than today.  We have
*very* stable population in 2300 - wonder why the population densities
aren't even closer?

5.  The population distributions are much like today, except 6 times
higher.  Europe is lower; the others are similar.  Ocean level rise?
Europe is a small continent, might suffer more, proportionately, from
an ocean level rise.  In that case, average population density is > 6x
today's.

6.  Famine, like other health risks, has been solved, while supporting
a 6x or higher population density.  More efficient food generation,
perhaps carried out over sea areas.

7.  Habitations might be built over/under the then-current coastal areas.

8.  The food generation might cover a significant portion of the
ocean.  If so, it should be mentioned in the tally.

9.  I hope they've worked out better energy management.  Dissipating
body heat in warm climates is going to be a problem.  We won't be
burning oil or gas and hopefully not much coal.  Fissionable fuel will
be gone without a breeding program; I forget if a breeding program
would extend it that long, but it would be extremely dirty; I hope
they are using solar (including wind) and fusion.  Maybe some tidal.
A little geothermal in favorable places.

10.  Denser and more extensive urban areas.

11.  What do all these people do?  Not a lot of procreation.  A lot of
automatic wealth generation.   Some sort of reasonable social
distribution of the wealth has been worked out, given the flat age
distribution.  People exchange "personal service", of a nature
depending on individual talents/training.  Not a very big health
industry (problems solved, not needed).  Perhaps a significant Public
Health organization (making sure things stay this way.)

Enough for now.

Richard

5.