[LMB] Single children (Was China), seems OT:

[ANDREW BARTON]

Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:32:28 +0100
"Tora K. Smulders-Srinivasan" <tora.smulders at gmail.com>:

> I stopped to see if my husband is back from Stockholm yet (no! :-( )
on the way back from lunch and happened to see just the guy I wanted
to talk to about this. <

  <snip>
  
> On the other hand, his own research (taking into account all the
things you should, of course) does show that first-borns are
significantly more likely to give money to later-borns and that are
also significantly more likely to take care of the later-borns.  But
that's within family dynamic -- as mentioned by Sylvus in the email
I'm replying to. <
   
  How did he take into account the fact that first-borns, being older, are at any given date more likely to have money than their juniors and less likely to need it?  That seems a very difficult effect to control for statistically.
   
  There was a famous episode in the UK some years ago when Keith Joseph, then a minister in Margaret Thatcher's cabinet, made a speech saying we had a problem.  Poorer families were having more children than richer families.  It was soon pointed out that people are more likely to have children at an early stage of their married lives, when on average they have less money than they will later.  Correct for that, and the effect disappears.
   
  Andrew