[LMB] Effects of "Global Warming"

phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu
Mon Sep 12 19:43:05 BST 2011


On Mon, Sep 12, 2011 at 11:01:58AM -0600, William A Wenrich wrote:

> The problems I have with "Global Warming" / "Climate Change" is not with
> science, it is with the political and economic actions that are hung on the
> science.

Not to mention the actions hung on denials or misrepresentations of the
science.

> greenhouse. If the average increase in temperature is one degree Celsius,
> toward the high end by the latest estimates, most of the change will be at

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming

0.6 C over the 20th century.  A further 1-6 C over the 21st.

> The outside high water level increase is predicted to be less than half a
> meter, despite the movies insistence that it will be two orders of magnitude
> greater. 

Depends on time scale.  Partial West Antarctic deglaciation would lead
to 4-6 meters, though over centuries.  

More drought, more heat waves, stronger storms, mountain glacial retreat
endangering fresh water supplies, warming and acidification of the
oceans

'Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise
by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 in). This projection is for the time period
2090-99, with the increase in level relative to average global sea
level over the 1980-99 period. Thermal expansion is the largest
component in these projections, contributing 70-75% of the central
estimate for all scenarios.[52] Due to a lack of scientific
understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the
possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on abrupt or
irreversible changes).'

Emphasis on that last sentence.

'A literature assessment published in 2010 by the US National Research
Council described the above IPCC projections as "conservative," and
summarized the results of more recent studies.[53] Cited studies
suggested a great deal of uncertainty in projections. A range of
projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st
century of between 0.56 and 2 m.'

Oh hey, your upper bound is their lower bound.

> Who said that the optimum global temperature was in 1850 and not during the
> Roman or Medieval warm periods, both warmer than now? Where is the climate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period

Neither period was warmer than now.  There's also debate whether the MWP
was global or something limited to Europe and the North Atlantic.

'A 2009 study by Michael Mann et al. finds that the MWP shows "warmth
that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but
which falls well below recent levels globally".'

-xx- Damien X-) 



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