[LMB] Effects of "Global Warming"

phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu
Mon Sep 12 23:21:09 BST 2011


On Mon, Sep 12, 2011 at 02:01:45PM -0600, William A Wenrich wrote:

> At this time, the "hockey stick graph" is pretty much discredited due to
> cherry picking the data sources. It removed Roman warm period, the mediaeval
> warm period, and the little ice age. The dramatic increase it showed came
> from eliminating most of the sources used for earlier periods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

"At the request of Congress, a panel of scientists convened by the
National Research Council was set up, which reported in 2006 supporting
Mann's findings with some qualifications, including agreeing that there
were some statistical failings but these had little effect on the
result"

"More than twelve subsequent scientific papers, using various statistical
methods and combinations of proxy records, produced reconstructions
broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph, with variations
in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears. Almost all of them
supported the IPCC conclusion that the warmest decade in 1000 years was
probably that at the end of the 20th century.[6]"

A study of the changing climate of the Arctic over the last 2,000 years,
by an international consortium led by Darrell Kaufman of Northern
Arizona University, was published on 4 September 2009. They examined
sediment core records from 14 Arctic lakes, supported by tree ring and
ice core records. Their findings showed a long term cooling trend
consistent with cycles in the Earth's orbit which would be expected to
continue for a further 4,000 years but had been reversed in the 20th
century by a sudden rise attributed to greenhouse gas emissions. The
decline had continued through the Medieval period and the Little Ice
Age. The most recent decade, 1999–2008, was the warmest of the
period, and four of the five warmest decades occurred between 1950 and
2000. Scientific American described the graph as largely replicating
"the so-called 'hockey stick,' a previous reconstruction".[144]

Further support for the "hockey stick" graph came from a new method of
analysis developed by Martin Tingley and Peter Huybers of Harvard
University, which produced the same basic shape, albeit with more
variability in the past, and found the 1990s to have been the warmest
decade in the 600 year period the study covered.[145]


Or for non-Wikipedia sources:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11646-climate-myths-the-hockey-stick-graph-has-been-proven-wrong.html
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/the-hockey-stick-lives/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/

-xx- Damien X-) 



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