[LMB] Effects of "Global Warming"

phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu phoenix at ugcs.caltech.edu
Tue Sep 13 19:38:48 BST 2011

On Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 07:03:02AM -0400, Greg Hennessy wrote:

> Water vapor is thought to be responsible for about half the greenouse
> effect on earth, CO2 about 20%. What point do you wish to convey
> when you say that CO2 is a "minor" greenhouse gas compared to H20?
> Are you trying to imply that it is minor enough not to change things?

Heh.  If that 20% goes up by 1/3, that's about an extra 7% of greenhouse
effect.  If greenhouse effect adds 33 degrees C to Earth's
temperature[1], relative to no atmosphere, that'd naively be an extra
2.3 degrees Celsius.  Utterly simplistic, but in the right ballpark.

Models being inaccurate shouldn't be all that much comfort; the Arctic
ice is shrinkng *faster* than predicted.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_effect

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