[LMB] OT: verging on forbidden territory: political attitudes about science
paal at gis.net
Wed Sep 14 05:40:11 BST 2011
Vermont had never since the recording started in the area, gotten as much
rain in storms as it has recently.
Meanwhile, even if the drought ends --and note that there was a several
years long drought recently in the US Southeast that was sparking some
extremely ill-will among some states regarding water flow--the cattle herds
will take years to recover, if they do recover to pre-drought levels. Some
of the ranchers are talking about permanently closing down.
Also, the temperatures in Texas etc., are higher than they were during the
height of the Dustbowl era.
One of my college dormmates has a share of the Nobel Prize given for climate
change analysis. He got his start in climate modeling modeling the Martian
atmosphere decades ago, then changed to modeling on this planet. He has no
doubts regarding climate change--and he's been doing research on it again,
for many years now.
The predictions, some of them made literally decades ago, were that the
weather was going to get more extreme--hot places getting hotter, cold snaps
getting colder, and the weather getting more random in the sense of more and
more intense storms, and storms going off in less predictable over time
directions, to places not necessarily visited by those types of storms.
"Average" is just that, "average." It doesn;t say anything about variance.
The average of 15, 15, and 15 is 15. The average of -15, 0, and 60
is -also- 15... The average of 10, 15, and 20 is 15, and the average
of -17, 0, and 68 is 17.... what the climate change predictions say, is that
the temperates on the average worldwide are rising, and they're going to
look like/look more likle -10, 0, and 68, than 10, 15, and 20... worldwide,
the average temperates -are- going up, and the weather in places like
Australia, and Texas, and Vermont, are noticeably more extreme and averaged
out warmer, than they have been since recording of parameters of
temperature etc. began.
From: Jeff Shultz
Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 11:43 AM
To: Discussion of the works of Lois McMaster Bujold.
Subject: Re: [LMB] OT: verging on forbidden territory: political attitudes
Droughts happen. It's not necessarily climate change. Unless the dust bowl
of the 30s was climate change.... which was then followed by a minor
not-quite-ice-age of the 40s.
On Tue, Sep 13, 2011 at 8:40 AM, Paula Lieberman <paal at gis.net> wrote:
> If you like beef, I suggest stocking up on it NOW, and perhaps investing
> canning equipment and can it, make jerky, etc., because Texas, which had
> of the US beef cattle herds, is disposing of most of them, including the
> heifers that would have been the producers of the next decade's output of
> beef.... the land in the changing climate conditions can't support the
> cattle herds anymore...
A railfan approaches a grade crossing hoping that there will be a train.
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