[LMB] CoC: Chapter 12 -- Things fall apart -- free will and godly actions OT: risk assessment
Walter S Bushell
proto at panix.com
Mon May 11 13:49:25 BST 2015
> On May 11, 2015, at 3:29 AM, Marc Wilson <marc.wilson at gmx.co.uk> wrote:
> We're bad at risk-assessment. Our brains seem to still be in the
> Neolithic, exquisitely tuned to smilodon-evasion, not being bitten by
> snakes or falling into the fire- less good at gradually-acting things.
> And hearing about bad news from afar doesn't help - the "availability
> heuristic" is what makes us fear terrorists more than heart disease.
And terrible at low probability evaluation, people who drive daily can
be terrified of flying commercial in the US and not terrified of doing
stupid things like texting, eating, shaving, putting on makeup, etcetera.
You get away with it hundreds, or even hundreds of thousands of times
aggregated over many individuals and then one of them dies in a wreck.
I mean, I fly from NYC to Maui and they rent me a car there no questions
asked aside from showing a driver’s license and a credit card. 12 hour
flight and I haven’t driven in 5 years. Amazing. Last time I got to
my (rented) condo by alternate means and waited to rent a car, and O yes,
I avoided the 10 dollar a day fee for renting at the airport.
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