[LMB] Betan control of pregnancy

Damien Sullivan phoenix at mindstalk.net
Sat Nov 7 21:21:17 GMT 2015


On Sat, Nov 07, 2015 at 08:08:47PM +0000, Brad Jones wrote:

> In addition, Cordelia's comments about how rare accidental pregnancies are
> would imply either superhumanly-low failure rates for their implants or
> defense in depth. Even five-nines effectiveness (99.999% effective, about
> 20 times better than the best we have now) would have hundreds of
> accidental pregnancies per year. Add in a male-contraceptive implant, and

Ooh, math.  99.999% = .99999 = failure rate of 0.00001, or 1 in 100,000.
So, out of 100,000 sexually active (and naturally fertile: 2/3 of
Cordelia's life is post menopause, unless they've changed that) couples,
1 would get accidentally pregnant in a year.  We don't know Beta's
population, but if they have at least 10 million such couples, which
isn't a high assumption, that'd be 100 a year.

> that cuts your chances down dramatically, and much more effectively than
> trying to further improve the female implant.

That may be true: squeezing out another two 9s would seem hard, while a
99% effective male contraception would drop that 100 down to 1.

OTOH maybe Lois originally envisioned a foolproof method.  That may seem
incredible to us but OTOH Beta's has a lot longer to work on this than
we have, we're pretty new to having a clue about biology.  We're still
not sure exactly why the copper IUD works, just that it does.

-xx- Damien X-) 


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