[LMB] Is Barr a rapist? or I'm misunderstanding beguilement?

WILLIAM A WENRICH wawenri at msn.com
Tue Aug 6 14:06:21 BST 2019

I believe there have been studies that showed that the chances of getting caught and punished are a greater deterrent than the severity of the punishment.
I’ve read that the reason drug laws are so draconian is that such a small percentage of the offenders/offenses are caught. (If that borders on US law, I apologize. At least I didn’t get into Marijuana legalization.)

Christian, husband, father, granddaddy, son, American. Here I stand. I can do no other. God help me.
William A Wenrich
From: lois-bujold-bounces at lists.herald.co.uk <lois-bujold-bounces at lists.herald.co.uk> on behalf of Damien Sullivan <phoenix at mindstalk.net>
Sent: Tuesday, August 6, 2019 6:54:39 AM
To: Discussion of the works of Lois McMaster Bujold. <lois-bujold at lists.herald.co.uk>
Subject: Re: [LMB] Is Barr a rapist? or I'm misunderstanding beguilement?

On Tue, Aug 06, 2019 at 03:06:37AM +0000, M. Haller Yamada wrote:
>     On Tuesday, August 6, 2019, 11:08:34 AM GMT+9, Damien Sullivan <phoenix at mindstalk.net> wrote:

> The chance of getting caught seems to deter people from crimes more than
> the severity of punishment. If getting caught is unlikely then there'll
> always be someone willing to take the risk.
> --Micki: It would be an interesting study. But I don't think criminals

I believe it *has* been studied.

> in a passion really think about "what if I get caught". If they think
> aboutpunishment at all, it seems to be more along the lines of "I

Lots of crime isn't that passionate.  Also, the effect of a successful
law is obviously not on the existing criminals but on the people who did
*not* commit a crime they were tempted to.

There's evidence that organized crime does consider the magnitude of
punishment, at least to the extent of recruiting youth when young
criminals are punished less severely.  But I think for the average
person, most felony penalties collapse into "my life is fucked"; in some
sense 5 years in prison is better than life in prison but it's not a
tradeoff I'd want to be making.  Chance of being caught, along with
broad classes like "minor fine", "major fine", "prison time and felony
status" are more salient.

> nothing to me."  Of course, I also believe in "locks keep honest
> people honest" but at a lot of criminal levels, we have societal

Locks also keep lazy potential criminals honest.  In general raising the
cost of X lowers the amount of X.  Raise the cost of crime, including
the cost of committing it in the first place, get less crime.

-xx- Damien X-)
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