[LMB] OT: Racial disparities in policing

Matthew George matt.msg at gmail.com
Tue Dec 10 22:43:44 GMT 2019

On Tue, Dec 10, 2019 at 5:22 PM Ruchira Mathur <wetair at gmail.com> wrote:

> It said that During the final round, “blind” auditions increased the
> likelihood of female musicians being selected by 30%. That seems
> significant to me.

Significance is a measure of the likelihood of a result not being the
result of chance.  It has nothing to do with the size, or importance, of
any change.  If there was a 1% chance a woman would make it through the
final round, blind selection would mean there was then a 1.3% chance.
Regardless of its statistical significance, would you consider that a
meaningful improvement?

The study notes how the proportion of men and women in orchestras changed
from the 1970s to 1993, from six percent to twenty-one percent.  It doesn't
claim how much of that change is due to hiring changes.  If we don't know
what else might have changed, we can't attribute any particular cause.  But
we can look at the statistics reported.

11% greater chance of making it through the initial stages, 30% greater
chance of making it through the final stage?  That's not enough to account
for the 6-24% change.  Nor can it account for the 76/24 final ratio - the
proportion of that disparity that was due to bias is quite small.

The link didn't work for me. I had to Google Harvard gender study muscions .

Because it should be

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