[LMB] OT: Racial disparities in policing

Thomas Shaw topaz0 at gmail.com
Tue Dec 10 23:13:45 GMT 2019


>> MG: It doesn't claim how much of that change is due to hiring changes.

The authors disagree with you. Here's the final paragraph of that paper:
"Using the audition data, we find that the screen increases— by 50
percent—the probability that a woman will be advanced from certain
preliminary rounds and increases by severalfold the likelihood that a woman
will be selected in the final round. By the use of the roster data, the
switch to blind auditions can explain 30 percent of the increase in the
proportion female among new hires and possibly 25 percent of the increase
in the percentage female in the orchestras from 1970 to1996 [57]. As in
research in economics and other fields on double-blind refereeing (see,
e.g., Blank, 1991), the impact of a blind procedure is toward impartiality
and the costs to the journal (here to the orchestra) are relatively small.
We conclude that the adoption of the screen and blind auditions served to
help female musicians in their quest for orchestral positions."

>> MG: Significance is a measure of the likelihood of a result not being
the result of chance.

The fact that "statistical significance" has a particular technical meaning
need not prevent us from using the generic meaning of the word
"significance" as we always have. The authors do that, too:
[some discussion of statistical significance]. "The point estimates,
moreover, are almost all economically significant."

Here's another link for those that want it -- the quotes in the earlier URL
seem to be giving people problems:
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.90.4.715

-Thomas


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