[LMB] OT: Governor’s Orders

Damien Sullivan phoenix at mindstalk.net
Mon Nov 16 21:44:22 GMT 2020

On Mon, Nov 16, 2020 at 12:10:00PM +0900, dbernat wrote:

> > Much of the US has resisted wearing masks or avoiding gatherings.  Some
> > people think the current huge outbreak, which looks like a bullseye or
> > bomb explosion centeren the Dakotas, is due to the Sturgis rally.
> > https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1326627764171141121
> Three months after Sturgis, contraction interval points to another factor.

Maybe.  But even exponential growth takes some time to get really
obvious.  If Rt or whatever started rising after Sturgis, and rising
faster in Sturgis states, that would be suggestive.

> > Lockdowns on restaurants or bars have often been lax or short-lived.
> > Schools are open this fall and kids are socializing after school,
> > probaby without masks.
> If Japan gets a low contraction rate without a lockdown, then why not learn
> from a source outside the US. Alex has given data from Hong Kong as well
> that shows a lockdown may not be all that useful.

Australia has relied heavily on lockdowns, and they've seemed useful.

A total lockdown, no one moving around for 28 days, would certainly be
effective.  It has practical problems.

A practical lockdown may not be necessary, given ubiquitous mask
wearing; Japan indicates that, though Japan is also several times worse
off than Taiwan or Korea.  So even there masks aren't 100% of the

The US has *actively resisted* ubiquitous mask wearing.  So lockdowns
become necessary, to make up for that.

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